KUALA LUMPUR (Politics Now!) - It looks like the Pelangai by-election is going to be the mother of wake-up calls for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and his coterie of advisers struggling to help him hang onto the top post.
Although campaigning in the Pahang state seat has been muted so far, many believe PAS which is challenging Umno in the polls, has been working quietly to ensure a shock victory.
ANWAR LOSING THE MODERATE, URBAN MALAY VOTE TO SG4 HOPES
PAS chief Hadi Awang has roped in PN boss Muhyiddin Yassin and Mahathir Mohamad to rouse up crucial Malay support in Pelangai, a traditional Umno bastion that was lost when the party's assemblyman was killed in recent accident.
"Pahang is semi-rural and the Malays there won't blindly support the PAS green wave. They worry PAS can't handle the economy and Malaysia will regress into a radical, conservative Islamic state under Hadi and his clerics, maybe another Afghanistan," a political observer told Politics Now!
"But now PAS has unveiled SG4 and appointed Mahathir as economic and investment adviser. So the moderate Malays may give PAS a chance once they see the 4 states Kedah, Kelantan, Perlis and Terengganu getting their act together under SG4 and developing themselves without depending on Anwar's federal government, which Malays still see as being led by the Chinese-DAP. "
"If this happens, I think it's game over for Anwar. The sense of Malay pride at such an achievement will win the day and this is the danger for not only Anwar and unity government but also for Malaysia as we have known it so far."
The Pahang state assembly has 42 seats and Pelangai won't make a difference to the current power equation in the state government.
But the psychological impact on the Malays cannot be underestimated, with many analysts and pundits believing it will revive the 'Green Wave' leap of faith in PAS, which had seemingly lost steam at the recent Johor twin by-elections.
MEASURE OF MALAY DISLIKE FOR ANWAR
Crucially, Pelangai will also be a measure of whether Malay dislike for Anwar has reduced or worsened. Many believe Anwar's unpopularity with the Malays has further increased due to the arrogant attitude of his inner circle, now that they are walking the corridors of power.
Some analysts also see Pelangai as a referendum on Umno president Zahid Hamidi, whose shock discharge from corruption charges was regarded as a top-level conspiracy that would be impossible without Anwar's involvement, whether tacit or direct.
“Unlike in the other East Coast states, Pahang, even though the majority of the voters are Malay, DAP still won seats in the state," Bernama reported Dr Che Hamdan Che Mohd Razali, a senior lecturer at UiTM Raub Branch as saying.
“The political trend has changed with PN, especially PAS, getting increasing support, including in Pahang, resulting in BN and PH having to work together to block PN’s progress in Pahang because Felda can no longer be considered as a fixed deposit for BN.”
PELANGAI FOR UMNO TO LOSE - AND LOSE IT, WILL THEY?
Nonetheless, Umno is still seen holding the upper hand and Pelangai was for it to lose. According to Che Hamdan, it was crucial for Umno to win the Pelangai seat to 'balance its position' in the Pahang state government.
“The GE results saw BN and PN each getting 17 seats in the Pahang State Assembly. As the state government, they definitely want to prevent PN from having more seats, even though this by-election result does not lead to a change the state administration," said the senior lecturer.
“Apart from that, the result of the Pelangai by-election is also important to gauge the people’s acceptance of the state government’s policies and administration, as well as the line-up of the state executive council after the GE.”
The Pahang state government was in a hung position when the results of last year's general election saw no single party acquiring a simple majority to form the state government. For the first time, Umno had needed help from the DAP-led Harapan coalition to form the state government. Umno and PAS had tied at 17 seats each, while Harapan had won 8.
The by-election is due to be balloted on October 7.
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