KUALA LUMPUR (Politics Now!) - Umno's Wan Rosdy Wan Ismail believes his cushy post as Menteri Besar or chief minister of Pahang is very safe, ridiculing a warning from ex-prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin he might soon be ousted and be replaced by PAS No.2 Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man."It will not happen. They just create stories, and when the people hear this, they will be scared. This is unhealthy," the rather placid Wan Rosdy was reported by the media as saying while campaigning in the Pelangai by-election.
ONLY 4 DEFECTIONS AND PAHANG BECOMES THE 5TH PAS STATE
At a dialogue session a day ago, Muhyiddin who heads the PN-PAS opposition coalition, had told NGOs it would be easy for his coalition to take over the Pahang state government through defections once they win the Pelangai by-election.
This would bring Pahang into the Malay-Muslim belt currently controlled by PAS and which comprises the east coastal and northern states of Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah and Perlis.
Pahang is more centrally located and is the largest state by size in Peninsular Malaysia with huge timber reserves. Like Kelantan and Terengganu, which it shares borders with, Pahang is still under-developed and lacking in infrastructure. Socially, it is mostly a conservative, even hardline, Muslim state although it is also home to Malaysia's sole casino Genting, a top money-spinner in terms of taxes for the federal government.
PAS, the largest Muslim-based political party in the country, has long wanted to seize control and from the eyes of their supporters, now is the best time when the party is at its strongest - holding the most number of seats in the federal Parliament and already in full charge of 4 states.
"Maybe, who knows, one morning some Umno representatives suddenly realise that they had made a mistake and want to join our coalition," said Muhyiddin.
"(If this happens), (PAS deputy president) Tuan Ibrahim (Tuan Man), InsyaAllah will be the next Pahang menteri besar."
WILL THE FUMBLING ANWAR LOSE ANOTHER STATE TO PAS?
There are 42 seats in Pahang state assembly. Umno (17) and the Pakatan Harapan coalition (8) led by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim hold a total of 25 seats while PN-PAS hold 17.
As such, Muhyiddin and Tuan Ibrahim would need only another four more seats to form the majority and seize the state government, once it wins the Malay-predominant constituency of Pelangai.
"On the scope of Malay support swing alone needed to change the seat’s fortunes, Umno has a reasonable chance of retaining Pelangai. Yet, recent elections do show that a big “Green” swing is not impossible to achieve for PAS," wrote prominent researcher and analyst Bridget Welsh in a recent report titled 'Umno swimming in Pelangai?'
"If Umno loses and PAS does beat the odds and secure a victory in the former’s traditional stronghold, Umno will indeed be drowning well beyond the levels described by its leaders in the campaign."
According to Welsh, indications are that Umno should have its head above water, but it is "still struggling to swim".
Hence all eyes, especially Malay ones, will be on whether Umno can beat back the PAS green wave at the October 7 poll, or will fumbling Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim lose another state to PAS!
Politics Now!
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