KUALA LUMPUR (Politics Now!) - It looks like embattled Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is trying hard to prep his country for bombshell news - that disgraced ex-premier Najib Razak, his old pal and political ally for now at least, has either been granted a full royal pardon or have a 12-year jail sentence halved to just six - so as to enable the former Umno president to have another stab at getting a full pardon within another year or so or early parole within three years if this round proves unsuccessful.
Already, Anwar's heavy-handed ministers and officials have warned the media against 'speculating' on the news. Indeed, such a controversial turn of events, if it takes place, will for sure have major implications for the survival of Anwar's government and his own position as PM. As such, these oppressive and petty moves by Anwar's 'Little Napoleons' will not help him cling to power or do much to stop the upswell of public scorn and disrespect for his government from snowballing even faster.
However surreal the expectations of the narcissistic Anwar may be, it cannot change the fact that Najib's release will further split public opinion in the country about his underperforming unity government and will also invite international derision that nothing much, if at all, has changed in corruption-riddled Malaysia - despite Anwar sweeping to power in 2022 on a highly-publicized platform of reform promises that have mostly been broken or unkept.
The Najib camp is already celebrating, with daughter Nooryana Najwa posting on Instagram - “Always waiting for your return, however long it takes.”
That Najib and his supporters have not given up on a full pardon and are bargaining hard with a politically weakened Anwar for an immediate release from prison is clear from the prolonged delay in announcing the Monday decision made by the Pardon's Board.
A day ago, the Anwar propaganda machine had used the excuse that his regime did not want to mar the official oath-taking ceremony of the new King, Sultan Ibrahim of Johor, as the country's constitutional monarch for the next five years. Yet today, the minister in Anwar's PM department Dr Zaliha Mustafa was forced to admit they were still not ready.
“God willing, it will be announced this week,” Zaliha told reporters after an event here today (Feb 1).
FIRST & FOREMOST REASON - MALAY 'REVOLT' AGAINST ANWAR?
Although disgraced, the 70-year-old Najib still wields power in Umno, the Malay nationalist party that ruled Malaysia since 1957 before another former premier Mahathir Mohamad, aided by former finance minister Daim Zainuddin, led Anwar's Pakatan Harapan coalition to a shock victory in the 2018 general election - ending a six-decades-old and almost impregnable hegemony that fruited the 'institutionalized' corruption and racism still easily visible in the country today. Anwar was then in jail for his second sodomy conviction and was controversially granted a royal pardon that allowed his immediate release from jail within a day or two of the Pakatan victory.
The 76-year-old Anwar is now fighting for his political life - not because of his high-profile and allegedly anti-corruption campaigns against Daim, Mahathir and their families or his failure to revive the stalling economy or stop the unceasing plunge in the Ringgit's value while inflation and costs of living sky-rocket - but because the ineffective Anwar is unable to pull in Malay support for his PKR party despite being PM, a post that comes with almost unfettered powers in Malaysia.
"That is the first and foremost reason. If Anwar had been able to increase Malay support for himself or his government, then the economy and the ringgit become secondary - now the day-to-day hardships and struggles just add impetus to the growing Malay resentment or you can even say the Malay revolt against his rule. This is the political reality in Malaysia," a pundit told Politics Now!
Since Anwar was sacked from Umno in the late 1990s and stripped of his deputy premier post after his first sodomy scandal, Malays who form over half the country's population and electorate, have eyed him with distrust - preferring to give their votes to Pas, an Islamic party led by Hadi Awang and Bersatu, a greenhorn Malay-centric party in comparison with Umno and led by another ex-PM Muhyiddin Yassin.
NO SECRET DEAL WITH ZAHID, NAJIB - YET THE FACTS NOW SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES
Malay political power is now split among 4 main parties - Pas which won 49 seats in Malaysia's 222-seat Parliament during the 2022 general election, Bersatu which snared 25, Umno 30 and Anwar's PKR 31. With the Chinese-based DAP's 40 seats and Amanah's 8, Anwar's Pakatan Harapan coalition managed to gather the most seats at 82, after including other allies Upko (2) and Muda (1) - but still could not reach the 112 mark needed to form the government.
Only with the help of the 30 seats held Umno, then led by another of Anwar's long-time buddy and now deputy premier Zahid Hamidi, and later on by the peace talks brokered by the then King, Sultan Abdullah, did Anwar manage to form his 'Madani' unity government and get himself appointed to the PM's post - with East Malaysian pacts of GPS (23), GRS (6) and Warisan (3) also agreeing to support him.
At that time, Anwar and DAP had assured their supporters the shock volte-face by Umno, their sworn political enemies for decades, was not because Anwar had struck a secret deal to free Zahid from a corruption trial or to secure a royal pardon for Najib in exchange for Umno throwing its lot with them.
But was there a secret deal after all? Perhaps the facts now speak for themselves. Zahid has since been discharged from his corruption case, stirring up a massive storm of public anger that has yet to settle. And it now looks like it's Najib's turn to get his 'reward'.
GE16 CARNAGE - UMNO VS PKR, WHO WILL 'CANNIBALIZE' WHOSE SEATS
As the Umno president preceding Zahid, Najib headed the once-mighty party since 2008 until the party's historic defeat in the 2018 election due largely to his 1MDB corruption debacle, upon which Mahathir and Pakatan had successfully built the Opposition's campaign and won. Najib's influence in Umno is deeply-rooted, with the older members grateful to his late father Tun Abdul Razak, the party's second president and the country's second prime minister.
Despite being convicted in 2020, Najib is believed to have placed his loyalists in many of the 30 seats won by Umno in 2022. Without his agreement, it is unlikely Zahid alone could overcome the extremely strong resistance within Umno itself against joining Anwar's unity government. Factions led by another ex-premier Ismail Sabri and Najib's own cousin Hishammuddin Hussein had preferred to align Umno with Muhyiddin's Bersatu and Hadi's Pas.
Many Malay leaders, especially Members of Parliament, are also positioning themselves for the next general election, officially due in 2027 but may be called as early as this year itself if Anwar decides to dissolve Parliament should he lose the majority support of his fellow lawmakers.
There is also talk of a no-confidence vote in Parliament or a show of support via legal letters addressed to the new King, Sultan no Ibrahim, to secure royal consent for the appointment of a new PM - in the event that the Speaker, an Anwar loyalist, refuses or blocks the tabling of a confidence motion in the august House.
"You must see from the point of view of the Malay leaders in Umno. What is going to happen in GE16? There will be a mad fight for seats - who will cannibalize whose seats? Obviously there will be a major showdown between Umno and PKR and that's why even if Anwar decides to ram through Najib's pardon, it won't stop the coming war between them," the pundit told Politics Now!
"Even if PKR or Umno decide to merge, there will still be 'World War Three' because it's about individual seats - who to get what seats and how many? This is why the complots and conspiracy theories of at least 15 Umno MPs joining Bersatu and Pas persist. Najib's pardon or a reduction in jail term won't reduce this number. I think it only stops the number from growing bigger against Anwar. Worth it or not for Anwar to backstab voters and long-time supporters? Only he knows how strong or how weak he really is."
Written by Wong Choon Mei, Politics Now!
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